Trader consensus positions Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus as the frontrunner for second-best AI model by April 30, 2024, at 61% implied probability on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it consistently ranked just behind OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo variants amid blind user votes emphasizing reasoning and coding prowess. Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro holds 22.5% on long-context multimodal gains from its April preview, while a tight cluster around 20-21% reflects Chinese labs' surge—Alibaba's Qwen 1.5, ByteDance's Doubao, Moonshot's Kimi, Zhipu's GLM-4, Baidu's Ernie—fueled by March-April releases topping domestic benchmarks like C-Eval despite mixed global blind-test results. Recent Llama 3 hype indirectly pressured non-Meta players, with xAI's Grok-1.5 vision update and Mistral's efforts lagging in Elo scores.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 61%
Google 23%
Alibaba 21%
ByteDance 21%

Anthropic
61%

23%

Alibaba
21%

ByteDance
21%

Moonshot
21%

Z.ai
21%

OpenAI
20%

xAI
20%

Baidu
20%

Meituan
20%

Amazon
20%

DeepSeek
13%

Mistral
12%
Anthropic 61%
Google 23%
Alibaba 21%
ByteDance 21%

Anthropic
61%

23%

Alibaba
21%

ByteDance
21%

Moonshot
21%

Z.ai
21%

OpenAI
20%

xAI
20%

Baidu
20%

Meituan
20%

Amazon
20%

DeepSeek
13%

Mistral
12%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus as the frontrunner for second-best AI model by April 30, 2024, at 61% implied probability on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it consistently ranked just behind OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo variants amid blind user votes emphasizing reasoning and coding prowess. Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro holds 22.5% on long-context multimodal gains from its April preview, while a tight cluster around 20-21% reflects Chinese labs' surge—Alibaba's Qwen 1.5, ByteDance's Doubao, Moonshot's Kimi, Zhipu's GLM-4, Baidu's Ernie—fueled by March-April releases topping domestic benchmarks like C-Eval despite mixed global blind-test results. Recent Llama 3 hype indirectly pressured non-Meta players, with xAI's Grok-1.5 vision update and Mistral's efforts lagging in Elo scores.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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