Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 95.9% for Iran legalizing gay marriage, driven by the Islamic Republic's Sharia-based legal code that criminalizes same-sex relations with severe penalties, including death under the penal code. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's oversight ensures policies align with conservative Shia jurisprudence, with no parliamentary or executive moves toward LGBTQ rights reform amid ongoing suppression of dissent. Recent developments, like the 2024 election of moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, show no signals of social liberalization on marriage equality. High confidence stems from historical entrenchment and low reform base rates in theocratic states. Realistic shifts would require regime change via mass unrest or constitutional overhaul, though probabilities remain minimal absent catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
Volume
$7,634Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,634Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 95.9% for Iran legalizing gay marriage, driven by the Islamic Republic's Sharia-based legal code that criminalizes same-sex relations with severe penalties, including death under the penal code. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's oversight ensures policies align with conservative Shia jurisprudence, with no parliamentary or executive moves toward LGBTQ rights reform amid ongoing suppression of dissent. Recent developments, like the 2024 election of moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, show no signals of social liberalization on marriage equality. High confidence stems from historical entrenchment and low reform base rates in theocratic states. Realistic shifts would require regime change via mass unrest or constitutional overhaul, though probabilities remain minimal absent catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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