Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability of no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—only five have occurred globally since 1900, per USGS records, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current seismic conditions show no precursory foreshocks, accelerated strain accumulation, or elevated activity on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Kamchatka, despite recent large quakes such as the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 and April 2026 Indonesia M7.4. USGS monitoring confirms normal global patterns, with short-term probabilities near zero given typical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries; a surprise rupture remains possible but lacks supporting geophysical data. Ongoing real-time seismic networks will provide updates on any shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?
9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?
हाँ
$177,661 वॉल्यूम
$177,661 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$177,661 वॉल्यूम
$177,661 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability of no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—only five have occurred globally since 1900, per USGS records, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current seismic conditions show no precursory foreshocks, accelerated strain accumulation, or elevated activity on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Kamchatka, despite recent large quakes such as the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 and April 2026 Indonesia M7.4. USGS monitoring confirms normal global patterns, with short-term probabilities near zero given typical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries; a surprise rupture remains possible but lacks supporting geophysical data. Ongoing real-time seismic networks will provide updates on any shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$177,661समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability of no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—only five have occurred globally since 1900, per USGS records, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current seismic conditions show no precursory foreshocks, accelerated strain accumulation, or elevated activity on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Kamchatka, despite recent large quakes such as the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 and April 2026 Indonesia M7.4. USGS monitoring confirms normal global patterns, with short-term probabilities near zero given typical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries; a surprise rupture remains possible but lacks supporting geophysical data. Ongoing real-time seismic networks will provide updates on any shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$177,661समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability of no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—only five have occurred globally since 1900, per USGS records, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current seismic conditions show no precursory foreshocks, accelerated strain accumulation, or elevated activity on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Kamchatka, despite recent large quakes such as the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 and April 2026 Indonesia M7.4. USGS monitoring confirms normal global patterns, with short-term probabilities near zero given typical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries; a surprise rupture remains possible but lacks supporting geophysical data. Ongoing real-time seismic networks will provide updates on any shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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