Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30, with "No" at 84.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in such actions since Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over disputes involving the IRGC terrorist designation. Earlier incidents—Saudi Arabia's March 21 removal of Iran's military attaché following a Red Sea port attack, and Qatar's mid-March expulsions after energy strikes—clustered around acute regional escalations, but no fresh intelligence revelations, espionage plots, or diplomatic violations have surfaced in the past two weeks to prompt further measures. Despite collapsed U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan and ongoing sanctions pressures, traders see low near-term risk of another targeted expulsion absent major catalysts like new attack attributions or UN disputes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2026
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30, with "No" at 84.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in such actions since Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over disputes involving the IRGC terrorist designation. Earlier incidents—Saudi Arabia's March 21 removal of Iran's military attaché following a Red Sea port attack, and Qatar's mid-March expulsions after energy strikes—clustered around acute regional escalations, but no fresh intelligence revelations, espionage plots, or diplomatic violations have surfaced in the past two weeks to prompt further measures. Despite collapsed U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan and ongoing sanctions pressures, traders see low near-term risk of another targeted expulsion absent major catalysts like new attack attributions or UN disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,206समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30, with "No" at 84.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in such actions since Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over disputes involving the IRGC terrorist designation. Earlier incidents—Saudi Arabia's March 21 removal of Iran's military attaché following a Red Sea port attack, and Qatar's mid-March expulsions after energy strikes—clustered around acute regional escalations, but no fresh intelligence revelations, espionage plots, or diplomatic violations have surfaced in the past two weeks to prompt further measures. Despite collapsed U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan and ongoing sanctions pressures, traders see low near-term risk of another targeted expulsion absent major catalysts like new attack attributions or UN disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$7,206समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30, with "No" at 84.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in such actions since Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over disputes involving the IRGC terrorist designation. Earlier incidents—Saudi Arabia's March 21 removal of Iran's military attaché following a Red Sea port attack, and Qatar's mid-March expulsions after energy strikes—clustered around acute regional escalations, but no fresh intelligence revelations, espionage plots, or diplomatic violations have surfaced in the past two weeks to prompt further measures. Despite collapsed U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan and ongoing sanctions pressures, traders see low near-term risk of another targeted expulsion absent major catalysts like new attack attributions or UN disputes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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