Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) at 41.5% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting preliminary observations through mid-April showing moderation from March's fourth-warmest 1.48ºC anomaly reported by Copernicus ERA5 on April 10. Elevated sea surface temperatures near record highs and persistent ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—support above-average warmth without prior El Niño boosts, while climatological April variability and recent Arctic sea ice lows add upward pressure. Upcoming daily ERA5 updates and the full April bulletin early May could shift model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअप्रैल 2026 तापमान वृद्धि (ºC)
अप्रैल 2026 तापमान वृद्धि (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
1.20–1.24ºC 28%
1.10–1.14ºC 15%
1.25–1.29ºC 8%
$118,732 वॉल्यूम
$118,732 वॉल्यूम
10 मई, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
15%
1.15–1.19ºC
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
28%
1.25–1.29ºC
8%
>1.29ºC
7%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
1.20–1.24ºC 28%
1.10–1.14ºC 15%
1.25–1.29ºC 8%
$118,732 वॉल्यूम
$118,732 वॉल्यूम
10 मई, 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,923 वॉल्यूम
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$22,738 वॉल्यूम
15%
1.15–1.19ºC
$13,390 वॉल्यूम
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
$15,521 वॉल्यूम
28%
1.25–1.29ºC
$27,375 वॉल्यूम
8%
>1.29ºC
$11,784 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) at 41.5% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting preliminary observations through mid-April showing moderation from March's fourth-warmest 1.48ºC anomaly reported by Copernicus ERA5 on April 10. Elevated sea surface temperatures near record highs and persistent ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—support above-average warmth without prior El Niño boosts, while climatological April variability and recent Arctic sea ice lows add upward pressure. Upcoming daily ERA5 updates and the full April bulletin early May could shift model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$118,732समाप्ति तिथि
10 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) at 41.5% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting preliminary observations through mid-April showing moderation from March's fourth-warmest 1.48ºC anomaly reported by Copernicus ERA5 on April 10. Elevated sea surface temperatures near record highs and persistent ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—support above-average warmth without prior El Niño boosts, while climatological April variability and recent Arctic sea ice lows add upward pressure. Upcoming daily ERA5 updates and the full April bulletin early May could shift model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$118,732समाप्ति तिथि
10 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) at 41.5% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting preliminary observations through mid-April showing moderation from March's fourth-warmest 1.48ºC anomaly reported by Copernicus ERA5 on April 10. Elevated sea surface temperatures near record highs and persistent ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—support above-average warmth without prior El Niño boosts, while climatological April variability and recent Arctic sea ice lows add upward pressure. Upcoming daily ERA5 updates and the full April bulletin early May could shift model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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