Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's dominant 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary has entrenched trader consensus at 93.5% odds for a GOP victory in Arkansas' U.S. Senate race, pitting him against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer who took 78% in her primary. The state's deep Republican lean—no Democratic senator since 1996—and Cotton's history of 30+ point general election margins reflect structural advantages like incumbency and low Democratic turnout in this non-battleground. Absent public polls post-primaries and no major developments in the last 30 days, markets price in minimal upset risk before the November 3 ballot. Late scandals, health issues for Cotton, or a national Democratic wave could shift dynamics, per historical base rates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअरकंसास सीनेट चुनाव विजेता
अरकंसास सीनेट चुनाव विजेता
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican
94%
Democrat
6%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican
$6,723 वॉल्यूम
94%
Democrat
$1,771 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's dominant 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary has entrenched trader consensus at 93.5% odds for a GOP victory in Arkansas' U.S. Senate race, pitting him against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer who took 78% in her primary. The state's deep Republican lean—no Democratic senator since 1996—and Cotton's history of 30+ point general election margins reflect structural advantages like incumbency and low Democratic turnout in this non-battleground. Absent public polls post-primaries and no major developments in the last 30 days, markets price in minimal upset risk before the November 3 ballot. Late scandals, health issues for Cotton, or a national Democratic wave could shift dynamics, per historical base rates.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$8,494समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's dominant 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary has entrenched trader consensus at 93.5% odds for a GOP victory in Arkansas' U.S. Senate race, pitting him against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer who took 78% in her primary. The state's deep Republican lean—no Democratic senator since 1996—and Cotton's history of 30+ point general election margins reflect structural advantages like incumbency and low Democratic turnout in this non-battleground. Absent public polls post-primaries and no major developments in the last 30 days, markets price in minimal upset risk before the November 3 ballot. Late scandals, health issues for Cotton, or a national Democratic wave could shift dynamics, per historical base rates.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
वॉल्यूम
$8,494समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's dominant 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary has entrenched trader consensus at 93.5% odds for a GOP victory in Arkansas' U.S. Senate race, pitting him against Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer who took 78% in her primary. The state's deep Republican lean—no Democratic senator since 1996—and Cotton's history of 30+ point general election margins reflect structural advantages like incumbency and low Democratic turnout in this non-battleground. Absent public polls post-primaries and no major developments in the last 30 days, markets price in minimal upset risk before the November 3 ballot. Late scandals, health issues for Cotton, or a national Democratic wave could shift dynamics, per historical base rates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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