Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by incumbent Republican Tommy Tuberville's 2025 bid for governor, drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican victory on November 3, 2026, reflecting the state's deep-red status—highlighted by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win and no Democratic Senate win since 1992. Recent polls show a competitive GOP primary on May 19 featuring Rep. Barry Moore (slight leader with $903,000 Q1 fundraising), Attorney General Steve Marshall, and Jared Hudson in a statistical tie, with a potential June 16 runoff. Democrats face a fragmented primary among low-profile candidates like Dakarai Larriett and Kyle Sweetser, lacking competitive polling or national momentum. Scenarios like a scandal-plagued GOP nominee or anomalous midterm turnout could challenge this, but historical base rates favor the Republican hold.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican
94%
Democrat
7%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican
$6,051 वॉल्यूम
94%
Democrat
$3,726 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by incumbent Republican Tommy Tuberville's 2025 bid for governor, drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican victory on November 3, 2026, reflecting the state's deep-red status—highlighted by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win and no Democratic Senate win since 1992. Recent polls show a competitive GOP primary on May 19 featuring Rep. Barry Moore (slight leader with $903,000 Q1 fundraising), Attorney General Steve Marshall, and Jared Hudson in a statistical tie, with a potential June 16 runoff. Democrats face a fragmented primary among low-profile candidates like Dakarai Larriett and Kyle Sweetser, lacking competitive polling or national momentum. Scenarios like a scandal-plagued GOP nominee or anomalous midterm turnout could challenge this, but historical base rates favor the Republican hold.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$9,777समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by incumbent Republican Tommy Tuberville's 2025 bid for governor, drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican victory on November 3, 2026, reflecting the state's deep-red status—highlighted by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win and no Democratic Senate win since 1992. Recent polls show a competitive GOP primary on May 19 featuring Rep. Barry Moore (slight leader with $903,000 Q1 fundraising), Attorney General Steve Marshall, and Jared Hudson in a statistical tie, with a potential June 16 runoff. Democrats face a fragmented primary among low-profile candidates like Dakarai Larriett and Kyle Sweetser, lacking competitive polling or national momentum. Scenarios like a scandal-plagued GOP nominee or anomalous midterm turnout could challenge this, but historical base rates favor the Republican hold.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
वॉल्यूम
$9,777समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by incumbent Republican Tommy Tuberville's 2025 bid for governor, drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for a Republican victory on November 3, 2026, reflecting the state's deep-red status—highlighted by Donald Trump's 30-point 2024 presidential win and no Democratic Senate win since 1992. Recent polls show a competitive GOP primary on May 19 featuring Rep. Barry Moore (slight leader with $903,000 Q1 fundraising), Attorney General Steve Marshall, and Jared Hudson in a statistical tie, with a potential June 16 runoff. Democrats face a fragmented primary among low-profile candidates like Dakarai Larriett and Kyle Sweetser, lacking competitive polling or national momentum. Scenarios like a scandal-plagued GOP nominee or anomalous midterm turnout could challenge this, but historical base rates favor the Republican hold.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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