Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% in the PA-02 House race stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and his unchallenged path through the upcoming May 19 Democratic primary, following easy 2024 reelection victories with margins over 50 points. Northeast Philadelphia's reliable Democratic turnout, minimal GOP infrastructure, and lack of competitive polling or fundraising from Republicans reinforce this safe seat status, aligning with historical base rates for such strongholds where incumbents win over 95% of the time. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; traders price in low upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a surprise Republican primary winner with national backing, or extraordinary midterm turnout swings could challenge this, though precedents suggest slim odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPA -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
PA -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$16,335 वॉल्यूम
$16,335 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
5%
$16,335 वॉल्यूम
$16,335 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$2,224 वॉल्यूम
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$14,111 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% in the PA-02 House race stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and his unchallenged path through the upcoming May 19 Democratic primary, following easy 2024 reelection victories with margins over 50 points. Northeast Philadelphia's reliable Democratic turnout, minimal GOP infrastructure, and lack of competitive polling or fundraising from Republicans reinforce this safe seat status, aligning with historical base rates for such strongholds where incumbents win over 95% of the time. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; traders price in low upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a surprise Republican primary winner with national backing, or extraordinary midterm turnout swings could challenge this, though precedents suggest slim odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$16,335समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% in the PA-02 House race stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and his unchallenged path through the upcoming May 19 Democratic primary, following easy 2024 reelection victories with margins over 50 points. Northeast Philadelphia's reliable Democratic turnout, minimal GOP infrastructure, and lack of competitive polling or fundraising from Republicans reinforce this safe seat status, aligning with historical base rates for such strongholds where incumbents win over 95% of the time. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; traders price in low upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a surprise Republican primary winner with national backing, or extraordinary midterm turnout swings could challenge this, though precedents suggest slim odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$16,335समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% in the PA-02 House race stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and his unchallenged path through the upcoming May 19 Democratic primary, following easy 2024 reelection victories with margins over 50 points. Northeast Philadelphia's reliable Democratic turnout, minimal GOP infrastructure, and lack of competitive polling or fundraising from Republicans reinforce this safe seat status, aligning with historical base rates for such strongholds where incumbents win over 95% of the time. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; traders price in low upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a surprise Republican primary winner with national backing, or extraordinary midterm turnout swings could challenge this, though precedents suggest slim odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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