Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from California's June 2026 primary with a strong plurality, facing Republican Bob Smith in the November general election for the Central Coast district encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the area's partisan composition, Carbajal's prior reelection margins, and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of competitive polling or major recent disruptions. A late scandal, significant national Republican surge, or unexpected turnout shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current district fundamentals and historical patterns in similar California seats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -24 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
CA -24 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$19,136 वॉल्यूम
$19,136 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,136 वॉल्यूम
$19,136 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,250 वॉल्यूम
95%
Republican Party
$7,885 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from California's June 2026 primary with a strong plurality, facing Republican Bob Smith in the November general election for the Central Coast district encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the area's partisan composition, Carbajal's prior reelection margins, and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of competitive polling or major recent disruptions. A late scandal, significant national Republican surge, or unexpected turnout shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current district fundamentals and historical patterns in similar California seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$19,136समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from California's June 2026 primary with a strong plurality, facing Republican Bob Smith in the November general election for the Central Coast district encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the area's partisan composition, Carbajal's prior reelection margins, and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of competitive polling or major recent disruptions. A late scandal, significant national Republican surge, or unexpected turnout shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current district fundamentals and historical patterns in similar California seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$19,136समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from California's June 2026 primary with a strong plurality, facing Republican Bob Smith in the November general election for the Central Coast district encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the area's partisan composition, Carbajal's prior reelection margins, and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of competitive polling or major recent disruptions. A late scandal, significant national Republican surge, or unexpected turnout shift could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current district fundamentals and historical patterns in similar California seats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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