Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in the CA-24 House race due to the district's D+13 partisan voter index and his established position since 2017, reinforced by a June 2026 primary win of 54.4% that advanced him alongside Republican Bob Smith. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties. Carbajal's campaign resources and legislative record on infrastructure and affordability further support trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the challenger.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -24 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
CA -24 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$50,888 वॉल्यूम
$50,888 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
सलूद कार्बाहल (डेमोक्रेट)
98%
बॉब स्मिथ (रिपब्लिकन)
1%
$50,888 वॉल्यूम
$50,888 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
सलूद कार्बाहल (डेमोक्रेट)
$32,535 वॉल्यूम
98%
बॉब स्मिथ (रिपब्लिकन)
$18,352 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in the CA-24 House race due to the district's D+13 partisan voter index and his established position since 2017, reinforced by a June 2026 primary win of 54.4% that advanced him alongside Republican Bob Smith. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties. Carbajal's campaign resources and legislative record on infrastructure and affordability further support trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$50,888समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in the CA-24 House race due to the district's D+13 partisan voter index and his established position since 2017, reinforced by a June 2026 primary win of 54.4% that advanced him alongside Republican Bob Smith. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties. Carbajal's campaign resources and legislative record on infrastructure and affordability further support trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$50,888समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in the CA-24 House race due to the district's D+13 partisan voter index and his established position since 2017, reinforced by a June 2026 primary win of 54.4% that advanced him alongside Republican Bob Smith. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties. Carbajal's campaign resources and legislative record on infrastructure and affordability further support trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the challenger.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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