Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection bid in the D+13 leaning CA-24 district, bolstered by post-Proposition 50 redistricting that enhanced Democratic margins, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 92%. Carbajal boasts over $3.2 million in cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing Republican challenger Bob Smith's $36,000, alongside endorsements from the California Teachers Association, United Farm Workers, and local Democratic parties. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's 60.9% Democratic presidential vote in 2024. Scenarios to upend this include a major Carbajal scandal, unexpected GOP fundraising surge, or national Republican midterm wave, though barriers remain high.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -24 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
CA -24 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,462 वॉल्यूम
92%
Republican Party
$4,135 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection bid in the D+13 leaning CA-24 district, bolstered by post-Proposition 50 redistricting that enhanced Democratic margins, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 92%. Carbajal boasts over $3.2 million in cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing Republican challenger Bob Smith's $36,000, alongside endorsements from the California Teachers Association, United Farm Workers, and local Democratic parties. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's 60.9% Democratic presidential vote in 2024. Scenarios to upend this include a major Carbajal scandal, unexpected GOP fundraising surge, or national Republican midterm wave, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,597समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection bid in the D+13 leaning CA-24 district, bolstered by post-Proposition 50 redistricting that enhanced Democratic margins, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 92%. Carbajal boasts over $3.2 million in cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing Republican challenger Bob Smith's $36,000, alongside endorsements from the California Teachers Association, United Farm Workers, and local Democratic parties. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's 60.9% Democratic presidential vote in 2024. Scenarios to upend this include a major Carbajal scandal, unexpected GOP fundraising surge, or national Republican midterm wave, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$7,597समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's strong reelection bid in the D+13 leaning CA-24 district, bolstered by post-Proposition 50 redistricting that enhanced Democratic margins, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 92%. Carbajal boasts over $3.2 million in cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing Republican challenger Bob Smith's $36,000, alongside endorsements from the California Teachers Association, United Farm Workers, and local Democratic parties. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's 60.9% Democratic presidential vote in 2024. Scenarios to upend this include a major Carbajal scandal, unexpected GOP fundraising surge, or national Republican midterm wave, though barriers remain high.
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