Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu's commanding position in California's 36th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic coastal Los Angeles-area seat rated D+37, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the November 2026 general election following the June 2 top-two primary. Lieu, first elected in 2014, cruised to 70% in 2022 amid no serious threats, and current certified primary challengers—multiple Democrats like Marianne Shamma alongside two Republicans including Frederick Reardon—pose little risk of displacing him under California's nonpartisan system. Absent recent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages and district demographics sustain low odds for a Republican upset. Potential challenges include a primary surprise ejecting Lieu, late-breaking controversy, health issues, or national midterm wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA-36 House Election Winner
CA-36 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,379 वॉल्यूम
94%
Republican Party
$1,324 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu's commanding position in California's 36th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic coastal Los Angeles-area seat rated D+37, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the November 2026 general election following the June 2 top-two primary. Lieu, first elected in 2014, cruised to 70% in 2022 amid no serious threats, and current certified primary challengers—multiple Democrats like Marianne Shamma alongside two Republicans including Frederick Reardon—pose little risk of displacing him under California's nonpartisan system. Absent recent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages and district demographics sustain low odds for a Republican upset. Potential challenges include a primary surprise ejecting Lieu, late-breaking controversy, health issues, or national midterm wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,704समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu's commanding position in California's 36th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic coastal Los Angeles-area seat rated D+37, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the November 2026 general election following the June 2 top-two primary. Lieu, first elected in 2014, cruised to 70% in 2022 amid no serious threats, and current certified primary challengers—multiple Democrats like Marianne Shamma alongside two Republicans including Frederick Reardon—pose little risk of displacing him under California's nonpartisan system. Absent recent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages and district demographics sustain low odds for a Republican upset. Potential challenges include a primary surprise ejecting Lieu, late-breaking controversy, health issues, or national midterm wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$3,704समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu's commanding position in California's 36th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic coastal Los Angeles-area seat rated D+37, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the November 2026 general election following the June 2 top-two primary. Lieu, first elected in 2014, cruised to 70% in 2022 amid no serious threats, and current certified primary challengers—multiple Democrats like Marianne Shamma alongside two Republicans including Frederick Reardon—pose little risk of displacing him under California's nonpartisan system. Absent recent polling shifts or scandals, historical incumbency advantages and district demographics sustain low odds for a Republican upset. Potential challenges include a primary surprise ejecting Lieu, late-breaking controversy, health issues, or national midterm wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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