Erdoğan’s constitutional term runs through 2028, with the next scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections set for May of that year. The ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold sufficient parliamentary leverage to pursue an early vote via a three-fifths majority if desired, activating a constitutional exception that would permit another candidacy. Recent statements from senior AKP figures in September 2026 reaffirmed preparations for future elections without signaling an imminent snap vote, while Erdoğan continues active engagement in domestic legislation and regional diplomacy. Opposition parties remain fragmented and weakened by legal actions, reducing near-term pressure for his removal. These factors underpin trader consensus that no resignation, ouster, or forced exit will occur by the end of 2026, though an unexpected health event or major coalition fracture could still alter the timeline.