President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a constitutionally scheduled presidential election no earlier than May 2028, with his current term running through that cycle under Turkey’s executive presidential system. The ruling Justice and Development Party alliance controls 328 of 600 parliamentary seats, falling short of the three-fifths majority needed for an early vote that could enable a third candidacy, while opposition parties remain fragmented after court actions against the CHP and the July 2026 formation of a new splinter party. Recent statements from AKP officials and allies emphasize holding elections on schedule, and Erdoğan has publicly signaled intent to continue serving. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent against removal by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any imminent electoral, legal, or institutional trigger in the remaining months of the year. Plausible shifts would require an abrupt health event, unforeseen parliamentary realignment sufficient for a snap vote, or a major constitutional maneuver completed well before year-end.