Erdoğan's strong institutional control and the fixed presidential term structure underpin the 94.5% trader consensus against him leaving office by December 31, 2026. His current term, secured in the 2023 election, runs until 2028 with no scheduled vote or constitutional trigger for early removal in the interim. Recent months have shown no major legislative challenges, coalition fractures, or verified health developments that would alter succession timelines, while opposition parties remain divided and lack the parliamentary leverage for impeachment or forced resignation. Markets reflect this stability through consistent pricing, with only low-probability tail risks such as unforeseen medical events or sudden political shocks capable of shifting outcomes before year-end.