Traders see the 104–105°F range as most likely for Austin’s August 22 high because National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate persistent high pressure, southerly flow, and mostly sunny skies will support afternoon temperatures near 104–106°F. Central Texas remains under a broader above-normal heat pattern, with the past week’s observed maxima of 102–105°F providing a strong baseline. Minor differences among leading outcomes stem from uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing depth and any late-day cumulus development that could shave a degree or two, or allow a brief spike higher. The tight clustering of probabilities around 104–107°F reflects this narrow forecast envelope, with lower odds assigned to extremes that would require significant model shifts by morning.