**Short-term forecast models indicate Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 25 will likely fall near the June climatological average of 13 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for 12–14 °C.** Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent northwesterly or southerly flows create high day-to-day variability; minor shifts in the timing or strength of an approaching front, or in low-level wind direction and mixing, can easily swing the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current guidance clusters around 12–14 °C with no strong signal for extremes, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal outlook and the absence of significant blocking highs or intense cold-air outbreaks. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of trader sentiment.