Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms (63.5% implied probability), matching the exact count of confirmed announcements as of early April 2026: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, announced March 4), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), and one additional incumbent per trackers like Ballotpedia. Daines' recent retirement declaration amid a record wave of GOP congressional exits—outpacing historical midterm norms—solidified this positioning, creating open seats in safe Republican states. Lower odds on fewer (e.g., 5 at 8.9%) reflect reversals as unlikely, while 11 (6.9%) anticipates potential further announcements before summer filing deadlines, though no immediate catalysts have emerged.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया7 64%
5 8.8%
11 8.5%
6 5.6%
$72,798 वॉल्यूम
$72,798 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<5
3%
5
9%
6
6%
7
64%
8
5%
9
1%
10
1%
11
9%
12+
1%
7 64%
5 8.8%
11 8.5%
6 5.6%
$72,798 वॉल्यूम
$72,798 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<5
$19,866 वॉल्यूम
3%
5
$15,348 वॉल्यूम
9%
6
$26,193 वॉल्यूम
6%
7
$2,125 वॉल्यूम
64%
8
$1,589 वॉल्यूम
5%
9
$1,211 वॉल्यूम
1%
10
$1,240 वॉल्यूम
1%
11
$918 वॉल्यूम
9%
12+
$4,308 वॉल्यूम
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms (63.5% implied probability), matching the exact count of confirmed announcements as of early April 2026: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, announced March 4), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), and one additional incumbent per trackers like Ballotpedia. Daines' recent retirement declaration amid a record wave of GOP congressional exits—outpacing historical midterm norms—solidified this positioning, creating open seats in safe Republican states. Lower odds on fewer (e.g., 5 at 8.9%) reflect reversals as unlikely, while 11 (6.9%) anticipates potential further announcements before summer filing deadlines, though no immediate catalysts have emerged.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$72,798समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms (63.5% implied probability), matching the exact count of confirmed announcements as of early April 2026: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, announced March 4), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), and one additional incumbent per trackers like Ballotpedia. Daines' recent retirement declaration amid a record wave of GOP congressional exits—outpacing historical midterm norms—solidified this positioning, creating open seats in safe Republican states. Lower odds on fewer (e.g., 5 at 8.9%) reflect reversals as unlikely, while 11 (6.9%) anticipates potential further announcements before summer filing deadlines, though no immediate catalysts have emerged.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$72,798समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms (63.5% implied probability), matching the exact count of confirmed announcements as of early April 2026: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana, announced March 4), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), and one additional incumbent per trackers like Ballotpedia. Daines' recent retirement declaration amid a record wave of GOP congressional exits—outpacing historical midterm norms—solidified this positioning, creating open seats in safe Republican states. Lower odds on fewer (e.g., 5 at 8.9%) reflect reversals as unlikely, while 11 (6.9%) anticipates potential further announcements before summer filing deadlines, though no immediate catalysts have emerged.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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