Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by above-average preliminary year-to-date counts of around 311 as of April 15 per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center data—boosted by deadly March outbreaks producing over 130 tornadoes, including 106 from March 10–12 across the Midwest and Plains. Early-season surges stem from persistent western trough patterns, above-normal warmth, and neutral ENSO conditions fostering supercell thunderstorms, aligning with historical analogs like 2023. However, forecasts like AccuWeather's 1050–1250 range highlight uncertainty ahead of peak April–June activity, with model consensus showing potential suppression later from ridging; watch SPC Day 1–3 outlooks for shifts in severe parameters like CAPE and shear.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
2026 में अमेरिका में कितने बवंडर हैं?
1250+ 37%
1000–1049 20.9%
1150–1199 7.1%
<950 7%
$64,519 वॉल्यूम
$64,519 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
7%
950–999
4%
1000–1049
21%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
7%
1200–1249
11%
1250+
37%
1250+ 37%
1000–1049 20.9%
1150–1199 7.1%
<950 7%
$64,519 वॉल्यूम
$64,519 वॉल्यूम
10 जन, 2027
<950
$21,622 वॉल्यूम
7%
950–999
$2,049 वॉल्यूम
4%
1000–1049
$1,534 वॉल्यूम
21%
1050–1099
$7,106 वॉल्यूम
5%
1100–1149
$1,375 वॉल्यूम
4%
1150–1199
$1,708 वॉल्यूम
7%
1200–1249
$14,432 वॉल्यूम
11%
1250+
$14,692 वॉल्यूम
37%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by above-average preliminary year-to-date counts of around 311 as of April 15 per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center data—boosted by deadly March outbreaks producing over 130 tornadoes, including 106 from March 10–12 across the Midwest and Plains. Early-season surges stem from persistent western trough patterns, above-normal warmth, and neutral ENSO conditions fostering supercell thunderstorms, aligning with historical analogs like 2023. However, forecasts like AccuWeather's 1050–1250 range highlight uncertainty ahead of peak April–June activity, with model consensus showing potential suppression later from ridging; watch SPC Day 1–3 outlooks for shifts in severe parameters like CAPE and shear.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$64,519समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by above-average preliminary year-to-date counts of around 311 as of April 15 per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center data—boosted by deadly March outbreaks producing over 130 tornadoes, including 106 from March 10–12 across the Midwest and Plains. Early-season surges stem from persistent western trough patterns, above-normal warmth, and neutral ENSO conditions fostering supercell thunderstorms, aligning with historical analogs like 2023. However, forecasts like AccuWeather's 1050–1250 range highlight uncertainty ahead of peak April–June activity, with model consensus showing potential suppression later from ridging; watch SPC Day 1–3 outlooks for shifts in severe parameters like CAPE and shear.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
वॉल्यूम
$64,519समाप्ति तिथि
10 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by above-average preliminary year-to-date counts of around 311 as of April 15 per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center data—boosted by deadly March outbreaks producing over 130 tornadoes, including 106 from March 10–12 across the Midwest and Plains. Early-season surges stem from persistent western trough patterns, above-normal warmth, and neutral ENSO conditions fostering supercell thunderstorms, aligning with historical analogs like 2023. However, forecasts like AccuWeather's 1050–1250 range highlight uncertainty ahead of peak April–June activity, with model consensus showing potential suppression later from ridging; watch SPC Day 1–3 outlooks for shifts in severe parameters like CAPE and shear.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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