Recent polls from early April, including Abacus Data's April 12 survey showing Liberals leading Conservatives by six points—narrower than prior double-digit gaps—and Nanos Research at 45% Liberal support on April 10, signal softening momentum. This prompted 338Canada's April 12 update to lower Liberal House of Commons seat projections to 210 (range 178-251) from previous highs, reflecting a weekly polling average dip from 45.5% to 44.5%. With no major rebounds in subsequent data, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "Down," capturing crowd wisdom on this closely tracked metric amid the Liberal minority government's recent transition to majority via April 13 by-elections, though hypothetical election polls define the market.