Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological agencies and international models point to partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers developing over Chengdu on September 7, introducing the main uncertainty in the overnight minimum. Official guidance shows daytime highs near 33–35 °C giving way to lows of 23–25 °C, with cloud cover and any early precipitation limiting radiative cooling while a modest influx of cooler air from the north begins to influence the basin. Model runs diverge modestly on the exact timing and intensity of showers, which directly affects how low temperatures can fall before sunrise. Historical September climatology for the region records typical overnight lows around 22–24 °C, providing context for why market-implied probabilities remain distributed across the mid-20 °C bins rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated model guidance and local observations through the evening of September 6 will be the next key inputs for refining the expected minimum.