Recent model guidance from Météo-France and ensembles indicates a brief respite from the ongoing European heatwave around July 18–19, allowing clearer skies and modest radiational cooling overnight in Paris. This setup favors minimum temperatures in the 12–15 °C range as a warm, humid air mass briefly yields to northerly flow, though urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover could keep readings closer to 16 °C. Traders assign roughly 44 % implied probability to 12 °C or below and comparable weight to adjacent brackets because ensemble spreads remain wide 48 hours out; historical July minima average near 15–16 °C, so any further model convergence toward cooler solutions would likely shift volume toward the lowest outcomes before resolution.