Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event—by June 30 aligns with USGS seismic monitoring showing no anomalous precursors in high-risk subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough or the Cascadia margin. Globally, such rare megathrust ruptures average once every 20–50 years, with the last in 2011; recent activity remains routine, highlighted by a M7.4 quake in Indonesia's Maluku Sea on April 1 but no foreshocks, slow-slip events, or strain anomalies signaling imminent failure. Long-term risks persist—Nankai at 80% over 30 years, Cascadia 10–15% in 50—but short-term odds over the next 75 days are minuscule absent triggers. Continuous USGS real-time data updates could shift sentiment if unusual patterns emerge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया30 जून तक मेगाक्वेक?
30 जून तक मेगाक्वेक?
हाँ
$45,216 वॉल्यूम
$45,216 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$45,216 वॉल्यूम
$45,216 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event—by June 30 aligns with USGS seismic monitoring showing no anomalous precursors in high-risk subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough or the Cascadia margin. Globally, such rare megathrust ruptures average once every 20–50 years, with the last in 2011; recent activity remains routine, highlighted by a M7.4 quake in Indonesia's Maluku Sea on April 1 but no foreshocks, slow-slip events, or strain anomalies signaling imminent failure. Long-term risks persist—Nankai at 80% over 30 years, Cascadia 10–15% in 50—but short-term odds over the next 75 days are minuscule absent triggers. Continuous USGS real-time data updates could shift sentiment if unusual patterns emerge.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$45,216समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event—by June 30 aligns with USGS seismic monitoring showing no anomalous precursors in high-risk subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough or the Cascadia margin. Globally, such rare megathrust ruptures average once every 20–50 years, with the last in 2011; recent activity remains routine, highlighted by a M7.4 quake in Indonesia's Maluku Sea on April 1 but no foreshocks, slow-slip events, or strain anomalies signaling imminent failure. Long-term risks persist—Nankai at 80% over 30 years, Cascadia 10–15% in 50—but short-term odds over the next 75 days are minuscule absent triggers. Continuous USGS real-time data updates could shift sentiment if unusual patterns emerge.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$45,216समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event—by June 30 aligns with USGS seismic monitoring showing no anomalous precursors in high-risk subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough or the Cascadia margin. Globally, such rare megathrust ruptures average once every 20–50 years, with the last in 2011; recent activity remains routine, highlighted by a M7.4 quake in Indonesia's Maluku Sea on April 1 but no foreshocks, slow-slip events, or strain anomalies signaling imminent failure. Long-term risks persist—Nankai at 80% over 30 years, Cascadia 10–15% in 50—but short-term odds over the next 75 days are minuscule absent triggers. Continuous USGS real-time data updates could shift sentiment if unusual patterns emerge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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