Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the rarity of such events, occurring globally about once per year on average, with none recorded in 2026 so far despite elevated M7+ activity like Indonesia's M7.4 on April 1. Current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous seismic swarms, foreshock sequences, or geodetic strain buildup signaling imminent rupture along high-risk zones such as Japan's Nankai Trough (60-94% chance over 30 years, but negligible short-term) or Cascadia subduction zone. Recent model updates and satellite data confirm steady tectonic loading without acceleration, justifying the market's skin-in-the-game assessment; watch USGS weekly summaries for shifts in global seismicity through late June.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया30 जून तक मेगाक्वेक?
30 जून तक मेगाक्वेक?
$45,191 वॉल्यूम
$45,191 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
$45,191 वॉल्यूम
$45,191 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the rarity of such events, occurring globally about once per year on average, with none recorded in 2026 so far despite elevated M7+ activity like Indonesia's M7.4 on April 1. Current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous seismic swarms, foreshock sequences, or geodetic strain buildup signaling imminent rupture along high-risk zones such as Japan's Nankai Trough (60-94% chance over 30 years, but negligible short-term) or Cascadia subduction zone. Recent model updates and satellite data confirm steady tectonic loading without acceleration, justifying the market's skin-in-the-game assessment; watch USGS weekly summaries for shifts in global seismicity through late June.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$45,191समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the rarity of such events, occurring globally about once per year on average, with none recorded in 2026 so far despite elevated M7+ activity like Indonesia's M7.4 on April 1. Current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous seismic swarms, foreshock sequences, or geodetic strain buildup signaling imminent rupture along high-risk zones such as Japan's Nankai Trough (60-94% chance over 30 years, but negligible short-term) or Cascadia subduction zone. Recent model updates and satellite data confirm steady tectonic loading without acceleration, justifying the market's skin-in-the-game assessment; watch USGS weekly summaries for shifts in global seismicity through late June.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$45,191समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability of no megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or higher per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the rarity of such events, occurring globally about once per year on average, with none recorded in 2026 so far despite elevated M7+ activity like Indonesia's M7.4 on April 1. Current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous seismic swarms, foreshock sequences, or geodetic strain buildup signaling imminent rupture along high-risk zones such as Japan's Nankai Trough (60-94% chance over 30 years, but negligible short-term) or Cascadia subduction zone. Recent model updates and satellite data confirm steady tectonic loading without acceleration, justifying the market's skin-in-the-game assessment; watch USGS weekly summaries for shifts in global seismicity through late June.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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