Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer (August-October 2026), driven primarily by the record-tying lowest winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15 per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements—statistically indistinguishable from 2025's low. This extent, 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average, signals a thinner ice pack dominated by young, first-year ice highly susceptible to melt under persistent Arctic amplification and warming air temperatures. Ongoing post-maximum decline remains well below average, compounded by La Niña's transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (NOAA forecast, 80% chance through June), with emerging El Niño risks that historically correlate with reduced summer extents. NSIDC monthly updates and inaugural Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in June will refine model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाइस गर्मी में न्यूनतम आर्कटिक समुद्री बर्फ की सीमा?
इस गर्मी में न्यूनतम आर्कटिक समुद्री बर्फ की सीमा?
<4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 52%
4.0-4.2m वर्ग किमी 15.0%
4.4-4.6 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 11.8%
4.2-4.4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 11.7%
$31,078 वॉल्यूम
$31,078 वॉल्यूम
<4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
52%
4.0-4.2m वर्ग किमी
15%
4.2-4.4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
12%
4.4-4.6 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
12%
4.6-4.8 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
11%
4.8-5 मिलियन वर्ग किलोमीटर
3%
5 मिलियन+ वर्ग किमी
1%
<4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 52%
4.0-4.2m वर्ग किमी 15.0%
4.4-4.6 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 11.8%
4.2-4.4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 11.7%
$31,078 वॉल्यूम
$31,078 वॉल्यूम
<4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
52%
4.0-4.2m वर्ग किमी
15%
4.2-4.4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
12%
4.4-4.6 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
12%
4.6-4.8 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
11%
4.8-5 मिलियन वर्ग किलोमीटर
3%
5 मिलियन+ वर्ग किमी
1%
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52% implied probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer (August-October 2026), driven primarily by the record-tying lowest winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15 per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements—statistically indistinguishable from 2025's low. This extent, 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average, signals a thinner ice pack dominated by young, first-year ice highly susceptible to melt under persistent Arctic amplification and warming air temperatures. Ongoing post-maximum decline remains well below average, compounded by La Niña's transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (NOAA forecast, 80% chance through June), with emerging El Niño risks that historically correlate with reduced summer extents. NSIDC monthly updates and inaugural Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in June will refine model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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