Eric Pratt holds a commanding lead in the Minnesota 2nd District Republican primary market after Tyler Kistner withdrew in mid-April 2026, citing a military activation. Pratt, a sitting state senator, secured 65 percent of delegate support at the May 2 GOP convention against newcomer Jeremy Westby, who later dropped out and endorsed him. These events consolidated party backing, fundraising momentum, and name recognition ahead of the August 11 primary, producing the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. A realistic challenge would require Westby to reverse his withdrawal and sustain a late campaign or an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or health issue involving Pratt before ballots are cast.