Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solidly Republican tilt, reflected in trader consensus around the Republican nominee at 92% implied probability ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, while Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a low-turnout contest. The district's rural and suburban composition, consistent R+ voting patterns, and Alford's prior general election margin exceeding 70% underpin the position. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, with minimal campaign activity or polling shifts since the primaries. A major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic reversal without significant new developments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMO -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
MO -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$44,542 वॉल्यूम
$44,542 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
92%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
9%
$44,542 वॉल्यूम
$44,542 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$28,293 वॉल्यूम
92%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$16,249 वॉल्यूम
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solidly Republican tilt, reflected in trader consensus around the Republican nominee at 92% implied probability ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, while Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a low-turnout contest. The district's rural and suburban composition, consistent R+ voting patterns, and Alford's prior general election margin exceeding 70% underpin the position. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, with minimal campaign activity or polling shifts since the primaries. A major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic reversal without significant new developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$44,542समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solidly Republican tilt, reflected in trader consensus around the Republican nominee at 92% implied probability ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, while Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a low-turnout contest. The district's rural and suburban composition, consistent R+ voting patterns, and Alford's prior general election margin exceeding 70% underpin the position. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, with minimal campaign activity or polling shifts since the primaries. A major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic reversal without significant new developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$44,542समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solidly Republican tilt, reflected in trader consensus around the Republican nominee at 92% implied probability ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, while Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a low-turnout contest. The district's rural and suburban composition, consistent R+ voting patterns, and Alford's prior general election margin exceeding 70% underpin the position. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, with minimal campaign activity or polling shifts since the primaries. A major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic reversal without significant new developments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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