Incumbent Republican Mark Alford's decisive August 2026 primary win, combined with the district's consistent Republican voting patterns and prior 71 percent margin, anchors trader consensus at 92 percent for the Republican nominee. The solidly Republican rating from forecasters and rural-suburban composition in central Missouri further limit Democratic prospects despite Jordan Herrera's nomination. High barriers to an upset include the district's structural lean and limited recent polling shifts, though scenarios such as major national political realignments, late scandals affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout among Democratic-leaning areas could narrow the gap before November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMO -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
MO -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$44,542 वॉल्यूम
$44,542 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
92%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
9%
$44,542 वॉल्यूम
$44,542 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$28,293 वॉल्यूम
92%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$16,249 वॉल्यूम
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford's decisive August 2026 primary win, combined with the district's consistent Republican voting patterns and prior 71 percent margin, anchors trader consensus at 92 percent for the Republican nominee. The solidly Republican rating from forecasters and rural-suburban composition in central Missouri further limit Democratic prospects despite Jordan Herrera's nomination. High barriers to an upset include the district's structural lean and limited recent polling shifts, though scenarios such as major national political realignments, late scandals affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout among Democratic-leaning areas could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$44,542समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford's decisive August 2026 primary win, combined with the district's consistent Republican voting patterns and prior 71 percent margin, anchors trader consensus at 92 percent for the Republican nominee. The solidly Republican rating from forecasters and rural-suburban composition in central Missouri further limit Democratic prospects despite Jordan Herrera's nomination. High barriers to an upset include the district's structural lean and limited recent polling shifts, though scenarios such as major national political realignments, late scandals affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout among Democratic-leaning areas could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$44,542समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford's decisive August 2026 primary win, combined with the district's consistent Republican voting patterns and prior 71 percent margin, anchors trader consensus at 92 percent for the Republican nominee. The solidly Republican rating from forecasters and rural-suburban composition in central Missouri further limit Democratic prospects despite Jordan Herrera's nomination. High barriers to an upset include the district's structural lean and limited recent polling shifts, though scenarios such as major national political realignments, late scandals affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout among Democratic-leaning areas could narrow the gap before November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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