Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district heading into the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election. The seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior results including Alford’s 71 percent share in 2024, underpins the 92.5 percent trader consensus for the Republican nominee. Multiple challengers have entered both parties’ primaries following the redrawn map upheld by the state Supreme Court in March, yet no developments have altered the district’s structural tilt or Alford’s incumbency advantages. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before the general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMO -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
MO -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$34,928 वॉल्यूम
$34,928 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
93%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
7%
$34,928 वॉल्यूम
$34,928 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$20,778 वॉल्यूम
93%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$14,150 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district heading into the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election. The seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior results including Alford’s 71 percent share in 2024, underpins the 92.5 percent trader consensus for the Republican nominee. Multiple challengers have entered both parties’ primaries following the redrawn map upheld by the state Supreme Court in March, yet no developments have altered the district’s structural tilt or Alford’s incumbency advantages. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$34,928समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district heading into the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election. The seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior results including Alford’s 71 percent share in 2024, underpins the 92.5 percent trader consensus for the Republican nominee. Multiple challengers have entered both parties’ primaries following the redrawn map upheld by the state Supreme Court in March, yet no developments have altered the district’s structural tilt or Alford’s incumbency advantages. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$34,928समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district heading into the August 4 primaries and November 3 general election. The seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior results including Alford’s 71 percent share in 2024, underpins the 92.5 percent trader consensus for the Republican nominee. Multiple challengers have entered both parties’ primaries following the redrawn map upheld by the state Supreme Court in March, yet no developments have altered the district’s structural tilt or Alford’s incumbency advantages. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before the general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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