Elon Musk’s deep alignment with Tesla through his roughly 28% ownership stake and a newly approved performance-tied compensation package worth up to $1 trillion over the next decade strongly anchors trader expectations that he will remain CEO through 2026. Recent board discussions about succession were quickly denied by chair Robyn Denholm, while Musk has publicly recommitted time to Tesla headquarters and autonomy efforts, including Cybercab robotaxi deployments and Optimus robot development. These factors, combined with ongoing AI hires and regulatory milestones for self-driving technology, reinforce the 94.4% market-implied probability against an exit. A sudden health event, major scandal, or unexpected board intervention could still shift the outcome despite the current consensus.