Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley's 97.2% implied probability in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary on May 19 reflects his overwhelming advantages as a longtime officeholder with nearly $6 million in cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challenger Paul Damian Wells' zero reported fundraising. Initial rival Jacob Ryan withdrew before the March filing deadline, leaving no credible threat and no public polling to suggest upset potential in the deep-blue state. Trader consensus underscores incumbency benefits and historical primary patterns favoring established Democrats. Late-breaking scandal, health issues, or a surprise Wells surge with external funding could shift odds, though such scenarios remain remote absent new catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$16,847 वॉल्यूम
$16,847 वॉल्यूम
19 मई, 2026
जेफ मर्कली
97%
जैकब रयान
3%
$16,847 वॉल्यूम
$16,847 वॉल्यूम
19 मई, 2026
जेफ मर्कली
$11,030 वॉल्यूम
97%
जैकब रयान
$5,817 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.
If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley's 97.2% implied probability in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary on May 19 reflects his overwhelming advantages as a longtime officeholder with nearly $6 million in cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challenger Paul Damian Wells' zero reported fundraising. Initial rival Jacob Ryan withdrew before the March filing deadline, leaving no credible threat and no public polling to suggest upset potential in the deep-blue state. Trader consensus underscores incumbency benefits and historical primary patterns favoring established Democrats. Late-breaking scandal, health issues, or a surprise Wells surge with external funding could shift odds, though such scenarios remain remote absent new catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.
If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$16,847समाप्ति तिथि
19 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.
If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley's 97.2% implied probability in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary on May 19 reflects his overwhelming advantages as a longtime officeholder with nearly $6 million in cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challenger Paul Damian Wells' zero reported fundraising. Initial rival Jacob Ryan withdrew before the March filing deadline, leaving no credible threat and no public polling to suggest upset potential in the deep-blue state. Trader consensus underscores incumbency benefits and historical primary patterns favoring established Democrats. Late-breaking scandal, health issues, or a surprise Wells surge with external funding could shift odds, though such scenarios remain remote absent new catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.
If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
वॉल्यूम
$16,847समाप्ति तिथि
19 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley's 97.2% implied probability in the Oregon Democratic Senate primary on May 19 reflects his overwhelming advantages as a longtime officeholder with nearly $6 million in cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfing challenger Paul Damian Wells' zero reported fundraising. Initial rival Jacob Ryan withdrew before the March filing deadline, leaving no credible threat and no public polling to suggest upset potential in the deep-blue state. Trader consensus underscores incumbency benefits and historical primary patterns favoring established Democrats. Late-breaking scandal, health issues, or a surprise Wells surge with external funding could shift odds, though such scenarios remain remote absent new catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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