At the start of September 2026, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (31%) to below 275 mm total rainfall in Hong Kong, reflecting broad uncertainty in seasonal outlooks rather than a single dominant forecast. Primary variables include the strength and position of the monsoon trough, which can steer moisture-laden air over the region, and the frequency and tracks of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, where small shifts in steering flow determine whether systems bring heavy rain or pass offshore. Sea-surface temperature anomalies and the evolving ENSO state further modulate atmospheric moisture and storm genesis, while climatological baselines show September averages near 300–350 mm with high interannual variability. Official agency model runs and updated typhoon guidance through mid-month will likely drive the largest near-term shifts in these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासितंबर में हांगकांग में वर्षा?
सितंबर में हांगकांग में वर्षा?
<275mm 31%
275-300mm 15%
450-500mm 11%
325-350mm 9%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
<275mm
31%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
7%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
7%
375-400mm
7%
400-450mm
8%
450-500mm
11%
500-550mm
7%
550mm+
5%
<275mm 31%
275-300mm 15%
450-500mm 11%
325-350mm 9%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
<275mm
$856 वॉल्यूम
31%
275-300mm
$128 वॉल्यूम
15%
300-325mm
$128 वॉल्यूम
7%
325-350mm
$128 वॉल्यूम
9%
350-375mm
$125 वॉल्यूम
7%
375-400mm
$125 वॉल्यूम
7%
400-450mm
$150 वॉल्यूम
8%
450-500mm
$125 वॉल्यूम
11%
500-550mm
$128 वॉल्यूम
7%
550mm+
$150 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.At the start of September 2026, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (31%) to below 275 mm total rainfall in Hong Kong, reflecting broad uncertainty in seasonal outlooks rather than a single dominant forecast. Primary variables include the strength and position of the monsoon trough, which can steer moisture-laden air over the region, and the frequency and tracks of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, where small shifts in steering flow determine whether systems bring heavy rain or pass offshore. Sea-surface temperature anomalies and the evolving ENSO state further modulate atmospheric moisture and storm genesis, while climatological baselines show September averages near 300–350 mm with high interannual variability. Official agency model runs and updated typhoon guidance through mid-month will likely drive the largest near-term shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,041समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.At the start of September 2026, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (31%) to below 275 mm total rainfall in Hong Kong, reflecting broad uncertainty in seasonal outlooks rather than a single dominant forecast. Primary variables include the strength and position of the monsoon trough, which can steer moisture-laden air over the region, and the frequency and tracks of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, where small shifts in steering flow determine whether systems bring heavy rain or pass offshore. Sea-surface temperature anomalies and the evolving ENSO state further modulate atmospheric moisture and storm genesis, while climatological baselines show September averages near 300–350 mm with high interannual variability. Official agency model runs and updated typhoon guidance through mid-month will likely drive the largest near-term shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$2,041समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...At the start of September 2026, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (31%) to below 275 mm total rainfall in Hong Kong, reflecting broad uncertainty in seasonal outlooks rather than a single dominant forecast. Primary variables include the strength and position of the monsoon trough, which can steer moisture-laden air over the region, and the frequency and tracks of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, where small shifts in steering flow determine whether systems bring heavy rain or pass offshore. Sea-surface temperature anomalies and the evolving ENSO state further modulate atmospheric moisture and storm genesis, while climatological baselines show September averages near 300–350 mm with high interannual variability. Official agency model runs and updated typhoon guidance through mid-month will likely drive the largest near-term shifts in these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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