The 100% market-implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stems from the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions first support organized tropical cyclone development. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows zero named storms or hurricanes forming in the basin through the end of May 2026, consistent with historical patterns where pre-season activity remains rare and landfalls even rarer. No recent model runs or observational data from NOAA have indicated any intensification or steering patterns that could produce an early system reaching Category 1 strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) and U.S. coastline impact. While unexpected tropical disturbances could theoretically emerge in late May, none materialized this year, locking in the outcome under standard resolution criteria.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या तूफान 31 मई तक अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या तूफान 31 मई तक अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
$41,549 वॉल्यूम
$41,549 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$41,549 वॉल्यूम
$41,549 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The 100% market-implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stems from the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions first support organized tropical cyclone development. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows zero named storms or hurricanes forming in the basin through the end of May 2026, consistent with historical patterns where pre-season activity remains rare and landfalls even rarer. No recent model runs or observational data from NOAA have indicated any intensification or steering patterns that could produce an early system reaching Category 1 strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) and U.S. coastline impact. While unexpected tropical disturbances could theoretically emerge in late May, none materialized this year, locking in the outcome under standard resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$41,549समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: नहीं
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: नहीं
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The 100% market-implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stems from the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions first support organized tropical cyclone development. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows zero named storms or hurricanes forming in the basin through the end of May 2026, consistent with historical patterns where pre-season activity remains rare and landfalls even rarer. No recent model runs or observational data from NOAA have indicated any intensification or steering patterns that could produce an early system reaching Category 1 strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) and U.S. coastline impact. While unexpected tropical disturbances could theoretically emerge in late May, none materialized this year, locking in the outcome under standard resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
वॉल्यूम
$41,549समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: नहीं
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: नहीं
The 100% market-implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stems from the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions first support organized tropical cyclone development. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows zero named storms or hurricanes forming in the basin through the end of May 2026, consistent with historical patterns where pre-season activity remains rare and landfalls even rarer. No recent model runs or observational data from NOAA have indicated any intensification or steering patterns that could produce an early system reaching Category 1 strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) and U.S. coastline impact. While unexpected tropical disturbances could theoretically emerge in late May, none materialized this year, locking in the outcome under standard resolution criteria.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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