Traders' strong consensus on a 91.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or earlier if needed. Pre-season U.S. hurricane strikes—defined as Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale affecting the continental U.S.—are exceedingly rare historically, owing to cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures, persistent vertical wind shear, and dry mid-level air inhibiting development before June 1. Colorado State University's April forecast for a below-normal 2026 season, driven by weak La Niña conditions transitioning to neutral, further bolsters this view. Realistic challenges include an anomalous early tropical depression amid unexpectedly warm waters and shear collapse, though model consensus shows low odds; watch NHC updates starting mid-May for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$13,870 वॉल्यूम
$13,870 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
$13,870 वॉल्यूम
$13,870 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Traders' strong consensus on a 91.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or earlier if needed. Pre-season U.S. hurricane strikes—defined as Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale affecting the continental U.S.—are exceedingly rare historically, owing to cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures, persistent vertical wind shear, and dry mid-level air inhibiting development before June 1. Colorado State University's April forecast for a below-normal 2026 season, driven by weak La Niña conditions transitioning to neutral, further bolsters this view. Realistic challenges include an anomalous early tropical depression amid unexpectedly warm waters and shear collapse, though model consensus shows low odds; watch NHC updates starting mid-May for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$13,870समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Traders' strong consensus on a 91.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or earlier if needed. Pre-season U.S. hurricane strikes—defined as Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale affecting the continental U.S.—are exceedingly rare historically, owing to cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures, persistent vertical wind shear, and dry mid-level air inhibiting development before June 1. Colorado State University's April forecast for a below-normal 2026 season, driven by weak La Niña conditions transitioning to neutral, further bolsters this view. Realistic challenges include an anomalous early tropical depression amid unexpectedly warm waters and shear collapse, though model consensus shows low odds; watch NHC updates starting mid-May for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
वॉल्यूम
$13,870समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' strong consensus on a 91.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 or earlier if needed. Pre-season U.S. hurricane strikes—defined as Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale affecting the continental U.S.—are exceedingly rare historically, owing to cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures, persistent vertical wind shear, and dry mid-level air inhibiting development before June 1. Colorado State University's April forecast for a below-normal 2026 season, driven by weak La Niña conditions transitioning to neutral, further bolsters this view. Realistic challenges include an anomalous early tropical depression amid unexpectedly warm waters and shear collapse, though model consensus shows low odds; watch NHC updates starting mid-May for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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