**Republican control of Congress through the end of 2026 creates the primary barrier to impeachment.** With GOP majorities in both chambers—narrow but intact until the November midterms and January 2027 swearing-in of any new members—articles of impeachment would require support from the president's own party, an outcome with no recent historical precedent for a first-term president in unified government. Democratic-led resolutions introduced in 2026, including those citing immigration enforcement and related executive actions, have been referred to committee without floor action under Republican leadership. Midterm timing further locks in the current dynamic. Even if Democrats flip the House (forecasts show them favored), any new majority would not convene until 2027, leaving only weeks or days before the December 31, 2026 cutoff. Senate conviction would still demand a two-thirds supermajority, a threshold unmet in prior Trump impeachments despite narrower partisan gaps. Trader pricing at 98% for "No" reflects this structural reality and the absence of any catalyst—such as bipartisan consensus or acute institutional crisis—capable of shifting Republican incentives before year-end. The main residual uncertainty stems from an unforeseen late-breaking development, such as a sudden internal party fracture or external shock forcing rapid House action, though both remain low-probability events given the compressed timeline and entrenched partisan lines.