Redistricting following the Supreme Court’s Callais decision shifted Alabama’s 2nd District significantly rightward by incorporating conservative Wiregrass counties and reducing its Black population share, producing an estimated Trump margin of roughly 14 points. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, who won under the prior map, faces the general election without a primary opponent after the Democratic contest was canceled. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. On the GOP side, a crowded August 11 primary features state Rep. Rhett Marques as the polling and fundraising frontrunner with endorsements including from President Trump; the nominee will enter a general election in a district that now structurally favors Republican performance. These factors underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAL-02 House Election Winner
AL-02 House Election Winner
$39,558 Vol.
$39,558 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
75%
Democratic Party
26%
$39,558 Vol.
$39,558 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,295 Vol.
75%
Democratic Party
$19,264 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting following the Supreme Court’s Callais decision shifted Alabama’s 2nd District significantly rightward by incorporating conservative Wiregrass counties and reducing its Black population share, producing an estimated Trump margin of roughly 14 points. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, who won under the prior map, faces the general election without a primary opponent after the Democratic contest was canceled. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. On the GOP side, a crowded August 11 primary features state Rep. Rhett Marques as the polling and fundraising frontrunner with endorsements including from President Trump; the nominee will enter a general election in a district that now structurally favors Republican performance. These factors underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$39,558Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting following the Supreme Court’s Callais decision shifted Alabama’s 2nd District significantly rightward by incorporating conservative Wiregrass counties and reducing its Black population share, producing an estimated Trump margin of roughly 14 points. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, who won under the prior map, faces the general election without a primary opponent after the Democratic contest was canceled. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. On the GOP side, a crowded August 11 primary features state Rep. Rhett Marques as the polling and fundraising frontrunner with endorsements including from President Trump; the nominee will enter a general election in a district that now structurally favors Republican performance. These factors underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,558Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting following the Supreme Court’s Callais decision shifted Alabama’s 2nd District significantly rightward by incorporating conservative Wiregrass counties and reducing its Black population share, producing an estimated Trump margin of roughly 14 points. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, who won under the prior map, faces the general election without a primary opponent after the Democratic contest was canceled. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. On the GOP side, a crowded August 11 primary features state Rep. Rhett Marques as the polling and fundraising frontrunner with endorsements including from President Trump; the nominee will enter a general election in a district that now structurally favors Republican performance. These factors underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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