Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a June 30 peak of 28°C (25%) or 30°C-plus (21%) because short-range ensemble forecasts place Chengdu’s maximum near the late-June climatological mean of 28–30°C, with modest upside risk from daytime heating under variable cloud cover. The Sichuan Basin’s humid subtropical regime, modulated by the East Asian monsoon, produces frequent afternoon thundershowers that can cap temperatures or allow clearer periods for stronger insolation; current model runs show limited consensus on exact cloud and precipitation timing two days out, widening the distribution across the 26–30°C bins. Official monitoring from the China Meteorological Administration will resolve the market using the daily maximum at the Chengdu station, where even small shifts in steering flow or moisture can swing the outcome by 1–2°C.