Recent JMA forecast guidance and ensemble model runs show Tokyo's August 12 maximum temperature centered near 27–29 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Primary influences include the strength and position of the subtropical high, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, modulated by potential sea-breeze cooling and variable cloud cover from upstream disturbances. Historical climatology places mid-August Tokyo averages near 31 °C, yet this season's slightly cooler-than-normal pattern and model spread of ±1–2 °C create genuine uncertainty. Updated deterministic and ensemble outputs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
28°C 33%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
26°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
12%
27°C
27%
28°C
33%
29°C
19%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 33%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
26°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$207 Vol.
6%
26°C
$169 Vol.
12%
27°C
$194 Vol.
27%
28°C
$52 Vol.
33%
29°C
$739 Vol.
19%
30°C
$156 Vol.
6%
31°C
$145 Vol.
2%
32°C
$68 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$374 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecast guidance and ensemble model runs show Tokyo's August 12 maximum temperature centered near 27–29 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Primary influences include the strength and position of the subtropical high, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, modulated by potential sea-breeze cooling and variable cloud cover from upstream disturbances. Historical climatology places mid-August Tokyo averages near 31 °C, yet this season's slightly cooler-than-normal pattern and model spread of ±1–2 °C create genuine uncertainty. Updated deterministic and ensemble outputs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,114Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecast guidance and ensemble model runs show Tokyo's August 12 maximum temperature centered near 27–29 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Primary influences include the strength and position of the subtropical high, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, modulated by potential sea-breeze cooling and variable cloud cover from upstream disturbances. Historical climatology places mid-August Tokyo averages near 31 °C, yet this season's slightly cooler-than-normal pattern and model spread of ±1–2 °C create genuine uncertainty. Updated deterministic and ensemble outputs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,114Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA forecast guidance and ensemble model runs show Tokyo's August 12 maximum temperature centered near 27–29 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values. Primary influences include the strength and position of the subtropical high, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, modulated by potential sea-breeze cooling and variable cloud cover from upstream disturbances. Historical climatology places mid-August Tokyo averages near 31 °C, yet this season's slightly cooler-than-normal pattern and model spread of ±1–2 °C create genuine uncertainty. Updated deterministic and ensemble outputs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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