Recent National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) outlooks and short-range forecasts position near-average winter conditions for Wellington, with models from the Met Office and AccuWeather projecting a daytime maximum near 15°C on August 23 amid transitioning high-pressure influence following earlier polar air intrusions. Typical August highs average 12–13°C under prevailing westerlies and frequent southerly flows that moderate temperatures, yet current model consensus favors mild advection supporting the 15°C outcome at 51% implied probability. The secondary clustering around 14°C and 16°C reflects residual forecast uncertainty in wind patterns and cloud cover, while probabilities drop sharply below 13°C or above 17°C given historical rarity outside these thresholds this late in the season. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
15°C 52%
16°C 22%
14°C 22%
13°C 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
22%
15°C
52%
16°C
22%
17°C
3%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 52%
16°C 22%
14°C 22%
13°C 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
$129 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$117 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$117 Vol.
1%
12°C
$117 Vol.
1%
13°C
$55 Vol.
4%
14°C
$91 Vol.
22%
15°C
$110 Vol.
52%
16°C
$164 Vol.
22%
17°C
$55 Vol.
3%
18°C
$4 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$142 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) outlooks and short-range forecasts position near-average winter conditions for Wellington, with models from the Met Office and AccuWeather projecting a daytime maximum near 15°C on August 23 amid transitioning high-pressure influence following earlier polar air intrusions. Typical August highs average 12–13°C under prevailing westerlies and frequent southerly flows that moderate temperatures, yet current model consensus favors mild advection supporting the 15°C outcome at 51% implied probability. The secondary clustering around 14°C and 16°C reflects residual forecast uncertainty in wind patterns and cloud cover, while probabilities drop sharply below 13°C or above 17°C given historical rarity outside these thresholds this late in the season. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,100Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) outlooks and short-range forecasts position near-average winter conditions for Wellington, with models from the Met Office and AccuWeather projecting a daytime maximum near 15°C on August 23 amid transitioning high-pressure influence following earlier polar air intrusions. Typical August highs average 12–13°C under prevailing westerlies and frequent southerly flows that moderate temperatures, yet current model consensus favors mild advection supporting the 15°C outcome at 51% implied probability. The secondary clustering around 14°C and 16°C reflects residual forecast uncertainty in wind patterns and cloud cover, while probabilities drop sharply below 13°C or above 17°C given historical rarity outside these thresholds this late in the season. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,100Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) outlooks and short-range forecasts position near-average winter conditions for Wellington, with models from the Met Office and AccuWeather projecting a daytime maximum near 15°C on August 23 amid transitioning high-pressure influence following earlier polar air intrusions. Typical August highs average 12–13°C under prevailing westerlies and frequent southerly flows that moderate temperatures, yet current model consensus favors mild advection supporting the 15°C outcome at 51% implied probability. The secondary clustering around 14°C and 16°C reflects residual forecast uncertainty in wind patterns and cloud cover, while probabilities drop sharply below 13°C or above 17°C given historical rarity outside these thresholds this late in the season. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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