Idaho's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean rooted in its eastern and rural voter base, with incumbent Mike Simpson securing reelection in 2024 by over 22 points. Simpson, who won his party's primary in May 2026, faces Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's consistent support for Republican House candidates, combined with Idaho's overall partisan makeup and limited recent shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, underpins trader consensus around a Republican victory. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a broad national Democratic surge or localized issues affecting Simpson's support, though historical base rates suggest such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,015 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$17,350 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean rooted in its eastern and rural voter base, with incumbent Mike Simpson securing reelection in 2024 by over 22 points. Simpson, who won his party's primary in May 2026, faces Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's consistent support for Republican House candidates, combined with Idaho's overall partisan makeup and limited recent shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, underpins trader consensus around a Republican victory. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a broad national Democratic surge or localized issues affecting Simpson's support, though historical base rates suggest such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$30,364Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean rooted in its eastern and rural voter base, with incumbent Mike Simpson securing reelection in 2024 by over 22 points. Simpson, who won his party's primary in May 2026, faces Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's consistent support for Republican House candidates, combined with Idaho's overall partisan makeup and limited recent shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, underpins trader consensus around a Republican victory. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a broad national Democratic surge or localized issues affecting Simpson's support, though historical base rates suggest such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,364Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean rooted in its eastern and rural voter base, with incumbent Mike Simpson securing reelection in 2024 by over 22 points. Simpson, who won his party's primary in May 2026, faces Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's consistent support for Republican House candidates, combined with Idaho's overall partisan makeup and limited recent shifts in voter registration or turnout patterns, underpins trader consensus around a Republican victory. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a broad national Democratic surge or localized issues affecting Simpson's support, though historical base rates suggest such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
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