Forecast models from the UK Met Office and BBC currently point to an overnight minimum of 16–19°C in Madrid on August 22, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 17–19°C. Clear skies and light southwesterly winds under high pressure favor strong radiational cooling after a daytime high near 32–33°C, allowing surface heat to escape efficiently in the typical late-summer dry air mass. Minor differences among ensemble runs—chiefly in predicted boundary-layer mixing or residual cloud—account for the 1–2°C spread that separates the leading outcomes. Historical climatology for the date shows an average low near 18–19°C, providing a baseline against which current guidance sits close to normal. Updated model runs and observational trends overnight will likely refine the precise minimum before resolution.