Recent observational data from Madrid weather stations, including official AEMET-linked monitoring, recorded a daily minimum of 16.3°C on August 27, aligning closely with model consensus from earlier runs projecting overnight lows near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow. This evidence underpins the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C as the lowest temperature. Historical August averages near 18°C and recent cooling trends further support this outcome. Only a late unforecasted drop below 15°C or significant station variance would realistically shift resolution away from the consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
16°C 99%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
13°C or below <1%
$2,910 Vol.
$2,910 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
16°C 99%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
13°C or below <1%
$2,910 Vol.
$2,910 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
$342 Vol.
No
14°C
$183 Vol.
No
15°C
$270 Vol.
No
16°C
$424 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$719 Vol.
No
18°C
$278 Vol.
No
19°C
$131 Vol.
No
20°C
$50 Vol.
No
21°C
$100 Vol.
No
22°C
$129 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$285 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data from Madrid weather stations, including official AEMET-linked monitoring, recorded a daily minimum of 16.3°C on August 27, aligning closely with model consensus from earlier runs projecting overnight lows near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow. This evidence underpins the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C as the lowest temperature. Historical August averages near 18°C and recent cooling trends further support this outcome. Only a late unforecasted drop below 15°C or significant station variance would realistically shift resolution away from the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,910Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data from Madrid weather stations, including official AEMET-linked monitoring, recorded a daily minimum of 16.3°C on August 27, aligning closely with model consensus from earlier runs projecting overnight lows near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow. This evidence underpins the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C as the lowest temperature. Historical August averages near 18°C and recent cooling trends further support this outcome. Only a late unforecasted drop below 15°C or significant station variance would realistically shift resolution away from the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,910Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Recent observational data from Madrid weather stations, including official AEMET-linked monitoring, recorded a daily minimum of 16.3°C on August 27, aligning closely with model consensus from earlier runs projecting overnight lows near 15–17°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow. This evidence underpins the market's strong 90.5% implied probability for exactly 16°C as the lowest temperature. Historical August averages near 18°C and recent cooling trends further support this outcome. Only a late unforecasted drop below 15°C or significant station variance would realistically shift resolution away from the consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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