Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate Munich's minimum temperature on August 21 will likely fall between 13–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, showers, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit nighttime radiative cooling under a surface high-pressure ridge. Official observations through midday show temperatures holding near 20–23°C amid thunderstorms, with dew points around 14–17°C supporting modest overnight drops once skies partially clear. Trader consensus reflected in the tight probabilities around 12–14°C bins captures remaining uncertainty from variable precipitation timing and potential for localized cooling in clearer intervals, while the elevated share on 9°C or below highlights tail risks if stronger advection develops. Historical August minima in Munich average near 12–14°C, providing context for current model consensus. Updated runs from DWD and ECMWF later today will likely refine the precise low ahead of resolution.