**Trader sentiment for Tel Aviv’s September 2 lowest temperature centers on 25–26°C as the most probable outcomes, with market-implied probabilities of 55.5% for 26°C and 45% for 25°C.** These lead because official and model forecasts consistently point to an overnight minimum in that narrow range under stable high-pressure conditions typical of early September in the eastern Mediterranean. Coastal location and sea-breeze moderation are key: the Mediterranean’s thermal inertia prevents rapid nocturnal cooling, while light northwesterly winds and high humidity (often 75–85%) keep the air mass from dropping further. Current observations show evening temperatures near 28–29°C with dew points around 23–24°C, supporting a gradual decline to the mid-20s rather than sharper falls. Ensemble guidance from sources such as the Met Office, local Israeli models, and global forecasts (e.g., GFS/ECMWF analogs) shows tight clustering around 25–26°C, with minimal spread and no incoming fronts or stronger winds to alter the trajectory. Historical climatology reinforces this: early-September Tel Aviv nights average near 24–26°C, and the absence of unusual synoptic features this week has kept probabilities anchored there. Lower outcomes (23–24°C at ~44%) remain plausible if cooling accelerates slightly under clearer skies, but probabilities drop sharply below 22°C given the current thermal profile. Higher readings (27°C+) carry negligible odds because the sun has already set and radiative cooling is underway. Traders are effectively pricing the consensus minimum from the latest model runs, with resolution hinging on the official overnight reading reported for the city.