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Pemilihan Umum·4 Nov Pemilu

MD-03 House Election Winner

icon for MD-03 House Election Winner
Pemilihan Umum·4 Nov Pemilu

MD-03 House Election Winner

$26,066 Vol.

Polymarket

$26,066 Vol.

Democratic Party

$19,244 Vol.

94%

Republican Party

$6,822 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, positioning the party nominee as the clear favorite for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth faces a competitive Democratic primary on June 23 but enters the general with established name recognition and fundraising advantages typical of an open-seat successor in a safely Democratic district. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in a jurisdiction that has favored Democratic candidates by double-digit margins. A realistic challenge to the current trader consensus would require an unforeseen national political realignment or a primary outcome that significantly weakens the eventual Democratic standard-bearer ahead of the fall campaign.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,066
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, positioning the party nominee as the clear favorite for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth faces a competitive Democratic primary on June 23 but enters the general with established name recognition and fundraising advantages typical of an open-seat successor in a safely Democratic district. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in a jurisdiction that has favored Democratic candidates by double-digit margins. A realistic challenge to the current trader consensus would require an unforeseen national political realignment or a primary outcome that significantly weakens the eventual Democratic standard-bearer ahead of the fall campaign.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,066
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"MD-03 House Election Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Democratic Party" di 94%, diikuti oleh "Republican Party" di 6%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 94¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 94% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "MD-03 House Election Winner" telah menghasilkan $26.1K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 28, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "MD-03 House Election Winner," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "MD-03 House Election Winner" adalah "Democratic Party" di 94%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 94% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Republican Party" di 6%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "MD-03 House Election Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.