The market's 90.5% implied probability for no megaquake by June 30 reflects the established rarity of magnitude 8.0+ events, which USGS seismic records show occur globally only a few times per decade on major tectonic fault lines. Current monitoring data indicate typical background seismic activity without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns that historically precede such quakes. Traders weigh the short remaining window against these baselines, recognizing that sudden rupture on high-risk subduction zones remains possible though improbable given present conditions. Continuous USGS updates on epicenters and aftershock trends will provide any near-term signals if activity escalates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMegaquake by June 30?
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The market's 90.5% implied probability for no megaquake by June 30 reflects the established rarity of magnitude 8.0+ events, which USGS seismic records show occur globally only a few times per decade on major tectonic fault lines. Current monitoring data indicate typical background seismic activity without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns that historically precede such quakes. Traders weigh the short remaining window against these baselines, recognizing that sudden rupture on high-risk subduction zones remains possible though improbable given present conditions. Continuous USGS updates on epicenters and aftershock trends will provide any near-term signals if activity escalates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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