Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Traders have priced the Democratic Party at 89 percent, reflecting Gottheimer’s five-term incumbency, consistent reelection margins above 50 percent, and a substantial fundraising edge over Republican nominee Sean Kirrane. The district’s northern New Jersey footprint, spanning Bergen and Sussex counties, has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Gottheimer faced no primary opposition after June 2026 balloting, while Kirrane’s limited resources and profile have not generated competitive momentum. With no major late-breaking developments or polling shifts reported since the primaries, the current implied probability aligns with historical base rates for incumbent-held seats of this type.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNJ-05 House Election Winner
NJ-05 House Election Winner
$12,026 Vol.
$12,026 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
11%
$12,026 Vol.
$12,026 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,592 Vol.
89%
Republican Party
$434 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Traders have priced the Democratic Party at 89 percent, reflecting Gottheimer’s five-term incumbency, consistent reelection margins above 50 percent, and a substantial fundraising edge over Republican nominee Sean Kirrane. The district’s northern New Jersey footprint, spanning Bergen and Sussex counties, has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Gottheimer faced no primary opposition after June 2026 balloting, while Kirrane’s limited resources and profile have not generated competitive momentum. With no major late-breaking developments or polling shifts reported since the primaries, the current implied probability aligns with historical base rates for incumbent-held seats of this type.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$12,026Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Traders have priced the Democratic Party at 89 percent, reflecting Gottheimer’s five-term incumbency, consistent reelection margins above 50 percent, and a substantial fundraising edge over Republican nominee Sean Kirrane. The district’s northern New Jersey footprint, spanning Bergen and Sussex counties, has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Gottheimer faced no primary opposition after June 2026 balloting, while Kirrane’s limited resources and profile have not generated competitive momentum. With no major late-breaking developments or polling shifts reported since the primaries, the current implied probability aligns with historical base rates for incumbent-held seats of this type.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,026Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Traders have priced the Democratic Party at 89 percent, reflecting Gottheimer’s five-term incumbency, consistent reelection margins above 50 percent, and a substantial fundraising edge over Republican nominee Sean Kirrane. The district’s northern New Jersey footprint, spanning Bergen and Sussex counties, has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Gottheimer faced no primary opposition after June 2026 balloting, while Kirrane’s limited resources and profile have not generated competitive momentum. With no major late-breaking developments or polling shifts reported since the primaries, the current implied probability aligns with historical base rates for incumbent-held seats of this type.
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