Both OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly detailed accelerating AI involvement in their own R&D without claiming full recursive self-improvement. Anthropic’s September 2026 updates show Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks and writing over 80% of merged code as of mid-2026, following its June “When AI Builds Itself” report; CEO Dario Amodei has urged coordinated slowdowns. OpenAI’s September 6 chief scientist post described rapid progress toward an “automated AI researcher” targeted for 2028, alongside GPT-6 Astra’s recent release and internal RSI indexing. Competitive pressure, safety incidents involving agent containment, and executive calls for caution are shaping trader views on whether either lab will soon announce autonomous successor-building capabilities.
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16%
$89 Vol.
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$33 Vol.
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$56 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly detailed accelerating AI involvement in their own R&D without claiming full recursive self-improvement. Anthropic’s September 2026 updates show Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks and writing over 80% of merged code as of mid-2026, following its June “When AI Builds Itself” report; CEO Dario Amodei has urged coordinated slowdowns. OpenAI’s September 6 chief scientist post described rapid progress toward an “automated AI researcher” targeted for 2028, alongside GPT-6 Astra’s recent release and internal RSI indexing. Competitive pressure, safety incidents involving agent containment, and executive calls for caution are shaping trader views on whether either lab will soon announce autonomous successor-building capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Volume
$89Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2028Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly detailed accelerating AI involvement in their own R&D without claiming full recursive self-improvement. Anthropic’s September 2026 updates show Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks and writing over 80% of merged code as of mid-2026, following its June “When AI Builds Itself” report; CEO Dario Amodei has urged coordinated slowdowns. OpenAI’s September 6 chief scientist post described rapid progress toward an “automated AI researcher” targeted for 2028, alongside GPT-6 Astra’s recent release and internal RSI indexing. Competitive pressure, safety incidents involving agent containment, and executive calls for caution are shaping trader views on whether either lab will soon announce autonomous successor-building capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$89Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2028Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Both OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly detailed accelerating AI involvement in their own R&D without claiming full recursive self-improvement. Anthropic’s September 2026 updates show Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks and writing over 80% of merged code as of mid-2026, following its June “When AI Builds Itself” report; CEO Dario Amodei has urged coordinated slowdowns. OpenAI’s September 6 chief scientist post described rapid progress toward an “automated AI researcher” targeted for 2028, alongside GPT-6 Astra’s recent release and internal RSI indexing. Competitive pressure, safety incidents involving agent containment, and executive calls for caution are shaping trader views on whether either lab will soon announce autonomous successor-building capabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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