Recent model releases have kept the second-place AI lab race highly competitive through mid-September 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 frequently topping benchmarks while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 variants trade narrow margins on intelligence and agentic tasks. Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen, and Zhipu’s GLM-5.3 deliver strong price-performance and rapid iteration, narrowing capability gaps on arenas like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS. Trader consensus at roughly even odds across Google, Meta, and several others reflects this convergence, where enterprise adoption, context length, and cost efficiency now matter as much as raw scores. Key upcoming catalysts include late-September updates and the November 30 arena.ai lab leaderboard snapshot used for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGoogle 40%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 16%
Alibaba 15.9%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
42%
Meta
25%
Anthropic
16%
Alibaba
17%
Moonshot
8%
OpenAI
8%
SpaceXAI
4%
Baidu
3%
Z.ai
3%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Amazon
1%
Tencent
1%
Google 40%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 16%
Alibaba 15.9%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
$2,248 Vol.
42%
Meta
$916 Vol.
25%
Anthropic
$636 Vol.
16%
Alibaba
$200 Vol.
17%
Moonshot
$286 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$192 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$187 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$187 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$187 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$187 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$176 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$197 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$187 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$187 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$176 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$187 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$187 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$176 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$176 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$186 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$196 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have kept the second-place AI lab race highly competitive through mid-September 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 frequently topping benchmarks while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 variants trade narrow margins on intelligence and agentic tasks. Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen, and Zhipu’s GLM-5.3 deliver strong price-performance and rapid iteration, narrowing capability gaps on arenas like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS. Trader consensus at roughly even odds across Google, Meta, and several others reflects this convergence, where enterprise adoption, context length, and cost efficiency now matter as much as raw scores. Key upcoming catalysts include late-September updates and the November 30 arena.ai lab leaderboard snapshot used for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,260Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have kept the second-place AI lab race highly competitive through mid-September 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 frequently topping benchmarks while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 variants trade narrow margins on intelligence and agentic tasks. Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen, and Zhipu’s GLM-5.3 deliver strong price-performance and rapid iteration, narrowing capability gaps on arenas like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS. Trader consensus at roughly even odds across Google, Meta, and several others reflects this convergence, where enterprise adoption, context length, and cost efficiency now matter as much as raw scores. Key upcoming catalysts include late-September updates and the November 30 arena.ai lab leaderboard snapshot used for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$7,260Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have kept the second-place AI lab race highly competitive through mid-September 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 frequently topping benchmarks while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 variants trade narrow margins on intelligence and agentic tasks. Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen, and Zhipu’s GLM-5.3 deliver strong price-performance and rapid iteration, narrowing capability gaps on arenas like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS. Trader consensus at roughly even odds across Google, Meta, and several others reflects this convergence, where enterprise adoption, context length, and cost efficiency now matter as much as raw scores. Key upcoming catalysts include late-September updates and the November 30 arena.ai lab leaderboard snapshot used for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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