Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8 to +2.7°C by late August 2026 and forecasts indicating further strengthening toward a very strong event peaking later in the year, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly expectations. This adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, pushing recent monthly anomalies into the 1.4–1.6°C range above 1850–1900 levels amid record or near-record ocean heat content. Model ensembles and observational data from sources like ERA5 and Berkeley Earth show tight clustering around 1.3–1.49°C for September, with the balanced market-implied odds across adjacent bins reflecting residual uncertainty from timing of peak ENSO influence, internal variability, and precise measurement methodologies. Upcoming September observational updates and refined seasonal forecasts will likely refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
BARU
BARU
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
24%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
BARU
BARU
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8 to +2.7°C by late August 2026 and forecasts indicating further strengthening toward a very strong event peaking later in the year, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly expectations. This adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, pushing recent monthly anomalies into the 1.4–1.6°C range above 1850–1900 levels amid record or near-record ocean heat content. Model ensembles and observational data from sources like ERA5 and Berkeley Earth show tight clustering around 1.3–1.49°C for September, with the balanced market-implied odds across adjacent bins reflecting residual uncertainty from timing of peak ENSO influence, internal variability, and precise measurement methodologies. Upcoming September observational updates and refined seasonal forecasts will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8 to +2.7°C by late August 2026 and forecasts indicating further strengthening toward a very strong event peaking later in the year, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly expectations. This adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, pushing recent monthly anomalies into the 1.4–1.6°C range above 1850–1900 levels amid record or near-record ocean heat content. Model ensembles and observational data from sources like ERA5 and Berkeley Earth show tight clustering around 1.3–1.49°C for September, with the balanced market-implied odds across adjacent bins reflecting residual uncertainty from timing of peak ENSO influence, internal variability, and precise measurement methodologies. Upcoming September observational updates and refined seasonal forecasts will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8 to +2.7°C by late August 2026 and forecasts indicating further strengthening toward a very strong event peaking later in the year, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly expectations. This adds to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, pushing recent monthly anomalies into the 1.4–1.6°C range above 1850–1900 levels amid record or near-record ocean heat content. Model ensembles and observational data from sources like ERA5 and Berkeley Earth show tight clustering around 1.3–1.49°C for September, with the balanced market-implied odds across adjacent bins reflecting residual uncertainty from timing of peak ENSO influence, internal variability, and precise measurement methodologies. Upcoming September observational updates and refined seasonal forecasts will likely refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan