**The near-certain "No" odds reflect Dolly’s rapid disintegration shortly after forming as a minimal tropical storm on August 27, 2026.** Strong southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air quickly eroded its closed circulation, turning the system into an open tropical wave by August 28–29 with maximum sustained winds stuck near 40 mph—well below the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the remnants produced only disorganized showers while crossing the northeastern Caribbean, with redevelopment odds falling to near zero by early September amid continued hostile conditions and fast westward motion. While an unexpected drop in shear or interaction with a Gulf low could theoretically allow reorganization, official guidance and current observations show no viable pathway for intensification before dissipation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
<1% peluang
$4,161 Vol.
$4,161 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
<1% peluang
$4,161 Vol.
$4,161 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".**The near-certain "No" odds reflect Dolly’s rapid disintegration shortly after forming as a minimal tropical storm on August 27, 2026.** Strong southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air quickly eroded its closed circulation, turning the system into an open tropical wave by August 28–29 with maximum sustained winds stuck near 40 mph—well below the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the remnants produced only disorganized showers while crossing the northeastern Caribbean, with redevelopment odds falling to near zero by early September amid continued hostile conditions and fast westward motion.
While an unexpected drop in shear or interaction with a Gulf low could theoretically allow reorganization, official guidance and current observations show no viable pathway for intensification before dissipation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$4,161Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".**The near-certain "No" odds reflect Dolly’s rapid disintegration shortly after forming as a minimal tropical storm on August 27, 2026.** Strong southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air quickly eroded its closed circulation, turning the system into an open tropical wave by August 28–29 with maximum sustained winds stuck near 40 mph—well below the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the remnants produced only disorganized showers while crossing the northeastern Caribbean, with redevelopment odds falling to near zero by early September amid continued hostile conditions and fast westward motion.
While an unexpected drop in shear or interaction with a Gulf low could theoretically allow reorganization, official guidance and current observations show no viable pathway for intensification before dissipation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$4,161Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**The near-certain "No" odds reflect Dolly’s rapid disintegration shortly after forming as a minimal tropical storm on August 27, 2026.** Strong southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air quickly eroded its closed circulation, turning the system into an open tropical wave by August 28–29 with maximum sustained winds stuck near 40 mph—well below the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the remnants produced only disorganized showers while crossing the northeastern Caribbean, with redevelopment odds falling to near zero by early September amid continued hostile conditions and fast westward motion. While an unexpected drop in shear or interaction with a Gulf low could theoretically allow reorganization, official guidance and current observations show no viable pathway for intensification before dissipation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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