A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8°C to +2.7°C by mid-to-late August 2026 and forecasts pointing toward very strong or super-El Niño conditions by September, is the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures. This occurs against record ocean heat content, a multi-year warming trend exceeding 0.27°C per decade, and recent months like July 2026 ranking second-warmest on record. Model ensembles show high consistency for above-normal surface temperatures worldwide during JAS 2026, though exact September ranking depends on the timing of peak El Niño influence, short-term variability, and differences across datasets such as ERA5 or Berkeley Earth. Close market-implied odds reflect these uncertainties in anomaly magnitude.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 47%
2nd hottest 47%
3rd hottest 46%
4th or lower 32%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
47%
2nd hottest
47%
3rd hottest
46%
4th or lower
32%
1st hottest 47%
2nd hottest 47%
3rd hottest 46%
4th or lower 32%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
46%
4th or lower
$250 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8°C to +2.7°C by mid-to-late August 2026 and forecasts pointing toward very strong or super-El Niño conditions by September, is the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures. This occurs against record ocean heat content, a multi-year warming trend exceeding 0.27°C per decade, and recent months like July 2026 ranking second-warmest on record. Model ensembles show high consistency for above-normal surface temperatures worldwide during JAS 2026, though exact September ranking depends on the timing of peak El Niño influence, short-term variability, and differences across datasets such as ERA5 or Berkeley Earth. Close market-implied odds reflect these uncertainties in anomaly magnitude.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$250Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8°C to +2.7°C by mid-to-late August 2026 and forecasts pointing toward very strong or super-El Niño conditions by September, is the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures. This occurs against record ocean heat content, a multi-year warming trend exceeding 0.27°C per decade, and recent months like July 2026 ranking second-warmest on record. Model ensembles show high consistency for above-normal surface temperatures worldwide during JAS 2026, though exact September ranking depends on the timing of peak El Niño influence, short-term variability, and differences across datasets such as ERA5 or Berkeley Earth. Close market-implied odds reflect these uncertainties in anomaly magnitude.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$250Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8°C to +2.7°C by mid-to-late August 2026 and forecasts pointing toward very strong or super-El Niño conditions by September, is the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures. This occurs against record ocean heat content, a multi-year warming trend exceeding 0.27°C per decade, and recent months like July 2026 ranking second-warmest on record. Model ensembles show high consistency for above-normal surface temperatures worldwide during JAS 2026, though exact September ranking depends on the timing of peak El Niño influence, short-term variability, and differences across datasets such as ERA5 or Berkeley Earth. Close market-implied odds reflect these uncertainties in anomaly magnitude.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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