Recent JMA and JTWC guidance shows Tropical Storm Saudel undergoing rapid intensification in the western Pacific due to sea surface temperatures above 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence. These conditions support peak sustained winds near 90 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa by 23 August, aligning with very strong typhoon thresholds on the JMA scale. Model consensus remains tight on this outcome, though an eyewall replacement cycle could briefly limit further gains, keeping violent typhoon odds modest. Traders are weighting the favorable environment and historical analogs for similar systems in the Philippine Sea during late August. Updated intensity forecasts and satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 86%
Violent Typhoon 13%
Typhoon 2.0%
Tropical Storm <1%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
<1%
Typhoon
2%
Very Strong Typhoon
86%
Violent Typhoon
13%
Very Strong Typhoon 86%
Violent Typhoon 13%
Typhoon 2.0%
Tropical Storm <1%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$663 Vol.
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$606 Vol.
<1%
Typhoon
$1,436 Vol.
2%
Very Strong Typhoon
$1,496 Vol.
86%
Violent Typhoon
$3,031 Vol.
13%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent JMA and JTWC guidance shows Tropical Storm Saudel undergoing rapid intensification in the western Pacific due to sea surface temperatures above 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence. These conditions support peak sustained winds near 90 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa by 23 August, aligning with very strong typhoon thresholds on the JMA scale. Model consensus remains tight on this outcome, though an eyewall replacement cycle could briefly limit further gains, keeping violent typhoon odds modest. Traders are weighting the favorable environment and historical analogs for similar systems in the Philippine Sea during late August. Updated intensity forecasts and satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$7,233Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent JMA and JTWC guidance shows Tropical Storm Saudel undergoing rapid intensification in the western Pacific due to sea surface temperatures above 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence. These conditions support peak sustained winds near 90 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa by 23 August, aligning with very strong typhoon thresholds on the JMA scale. Model consensus remains tight on this outcome, though an eyewall replacement cycle could briefly limit further gains, keeping violent typhoon odds modest. Traders are weighting the favorable environment and historical analogs for similar systems in the Philippine Sea during late August. Updated intensity forecasts and satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$7,233Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA and JTWC guidance shows Tropical Storm Saudel undergoing rapid intensification in the western Pacific due to sea surface temperatures above 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence. These conditions support peak sustained winds near 90 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa by 23 August, aligning with very strong typhoon thresholds on the JMA scale. Model consensus remains tight on this outcome, though an eyewall replacement cycle could briefly limit further gains, keeping violent typhoon odds modest. Traders are weighting the favorable environment and historical analogs for similar systems in the Philippine Sea during late August. Updated intensity forecasts and satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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