**Persistent record warmth and below-normal precipitation through summer 2026, culminating in flash drought across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, have driven exceptional (D4) drought expansion into at least 10 states as of the mid-September U.S. Drought Monitor.** The contiguous U.S. saw its warmest June–August on record, sustaining drought over roughly half the country, with D4 conditions documented in states including Texas (3.6% of area), Oklahoma (expanding to 16.6%), Colorado (15%), New Mexico (7.9%), Idaho (7.9%), and smaller extents in Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, and North Carolina. Official USDM assessments integrate precipitation deficits, soil moisture, streamflow, and evaporative demand from NOAA, USDA, and NASA data, confirming the multi-state footprint of D4. The market-implied 94% odds on 10 or more states for the week of September 22 reflect this established pattern, with the next USDM update (data valid around September 15–22) expected to hold steady absent major precipitation. Realistic challenges to the consensus would require widespread, heavy rainfall in the Southern Plains and Intermountain West within the narrow resolution window to push multiple states below D4 thresholds, though current model guidance and seasonal dryness favor persistence.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
10 or more states 94%
7-9 states 5%
1-2 states 3.0%
3-4 states 3.0%
BARU
BARU
Sep 24, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
3%
3-4 states
3%
5-6 states
3%
7-9 states
5%
10 or more states
94%
10 or more states 94%
7-9 states 5%
1-2 states 3.0%
3-4 states 3.0%
BARU
BARU
Sep 24, 2026
0 states
$25 Vol.
1%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
3%
3-4 states
$0 Vol.
3%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
3%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
5%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Persistent record warmth and below-normal precipitation through summer 2026, culminating in flash drought across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, have driven exceptional (D4) drought expansion into at least 10 states as of the mid-September U.S. Drought Monitor.** The contiguous U.S. saw its warmest June–August on record, sustaining drought over roughly half the country, with D4 conditions documented in states including Texas (3.6% of area), Oklahoma (expanding to 16.6%), Colorado (15%), New Mexico (7.9%), Idaho (7.9%), and smaller extents in Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, and North Carolina. Official USDM assessments integrate precipitation deficits, soil moisture, streamflow, and evaporative demand from NOAA, USDA, and NASA data, confirming the multi-state footprint of D4. The market-implied 94% odds on 10 or more states for the week of September 22 reflect this established pattern, with the next USDM update (data valid around September 15–22) expected to hold steady absent major precipitation. Realistic challenges to the consensus would require widespread, heavy rainfall in the Southern Plains and Intermountain West within the narrow resolution window to push multiple states below D4 thresholds, though current model guidance and seasonal dryness favor persistence.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$25Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Persistent record warmth and below-normal precipitation through summer 2026, culminating in flash drought across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, have driven exceptional (D4) drought expansion into at least 10 states as of the mid-September U.S. Drought Monitor.** The contiguous U.S. saw its warmest June–August on record, sustaining drought over roughly half the country, with D4 conditions documented in states including Texas (3.6% of area), Oklahoma (expanding to 16.6%), Colorado (15%), New Mexico (7.9%), Idaho (7.9%), and smaller extents in Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, and North Carolina. Official USDM assessments integrate precipitation deficits, soil moisture, streamflow, and evaporative demand from NOAA, USDA, and NASA data, confirming the multi-state footprint of D4. The market-implied 94% odds on 10 or more states for the week of September 22 reflect this established pattern, with the next USDM update (data valid around September 15–22) expected to hold steady absent major precipitation. Realistic challenges to the consensus would require widespread, heavy rainfall in the Southern Plains and Intermountain West within the narrow resolution window to push multiple states below D4 thresholds, though current model guidance and seasonal dryness favor persistence.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$25Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent record warmth and below-normal precipitation through summer 2026, culminating in flash drought across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, have driven exceptional (D4) drought expansion into at least 10 states as of the mid-September U.S. Drought Monitor.** The contiguous U.S. saw its warmest June–August on record, sustaining drought over roughly half the country, with D4 conditions documented in states including Texas (3.6% of area), Oklahoma (expanding to 16.6%), Colorado (15%), New Mexico (7.9%), Idaho (7.9%), and smaller extents in Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, and North Carolina. Official USDM assessments integrate precipitation deficits, soil moisture, streamflow, and evaporative demand from NOAA, USDA, and NASA data, confirming the multi-state footprint of D4. The market-implied 94% odds on 10 or more states for the week of September 22 reflect this established pattern, with the next USDM update (data valid around September 15–22) expected to hold steady absent major precipitation. Realistic challenges to the consensus would require widespread, heavy rainfall in the Southern Plains and Intermountain West within the narrow resolution window to push multiple states below D4 thresholds, though current model guidance and seasonal dryness favor persistence.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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