Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th congressional district after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 primary runoff, following redistricting that merged two heavily Democratic seats. Forecasters rate the general election matchup against Republican Ronald Whitfield as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the district’s longstanding partisan baseline exceeding D+35. The overwhelming market consensus for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage, Menefee’s primary performance and fundraising edge, and the absence of any competitive Republican primary or polling momentum. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or national political shift of historic scale would be required to alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTX-18 House Election Winner
TX-18 House Election Winner
$16,119 Vol.
$16,119 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
3%
$16,119 Vol.
$16,119 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,415 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$1,704 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th congressional district after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 primary runoff, following redistricting that merged two heavily Democratic seats. Forecasters rate the general election matchup against Republican Ronald Whitfield as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the district’s longstanding partisan baseline exceeding D+35. The overwhelming market consensus for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage, Menefee’s primary performance and fundraising edge, and the absence of any competitive Republican primary or polling momentum. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or national political shift of historic scale would be required to alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$16,119Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th congressional district after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 primary runoff, following redistricting that merged two heavily Democratic seats. Forecasters rate the general election matchup against Republican Ronald Whitfield as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the district’s longstanding partisan baseline exceeding D+35. The overwhelming market consensus for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage, Menefee’s primary performance and fundraising edge, and the absence of any competitive Republican primary or polling momentum. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or national political shift of historic scale would be required to alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,119Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th congressional district after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 primary runoff, following redistricting that merged two heavily Democratic seats. Forecasters rate the general election matchup against Republican Ronald Whitfield as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the district’s longstanding partisan baseline exceeding D+35. The overwhelming market consensus for the Democratic nominee reflects this structural advantage, Menefee’s primary performance and fundraising edge, and the absence of any competitive Republican primary or polling momentum. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or national political shift of historic scale would be required to alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
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